INTegraSS: Proyección del Gasto en Pensiones de la Seguridad Social

Integrated Model for Projecting Social Security Pension Expenditure

In 2026, the Social Security presented INTegraSS, the Integrated Model for Projecting Long-term Pension Expenditure, an advanced tool designed to analyse and project trends in pension expenditure within the Spanish public system. The initial reference period for this first version of INTegraSS is 2025.

INTegraSS significantly enhances the Social Security system’s capacity for analysis, diagnosis and planning, providing a detailed and coherent overview of the long-term dynamics of the pension system.

What does INTegraSS offer?

The main added value of INTegraSS lies in its integrated approach and the high level of disaggregation of the results, which makes it possible to analyse pension expenditure by taking into account both the characteristics of the pensioner and those specific to each pension.

The model introduces an estimate of cash flows by cohort, defined according to the date on which the pension becomes payable, which facilitates a more accurate monitoring of the system’s development over time.

Projection methodology

The INTegraSS methodology is based on the classical component method. Based on the most recent information available at the time of the projection, the model estimates the trend for:

• The number of active pensions
• Their associated expenditure
• The breakdown by pension category

Scope and classification of the data

The starting point for the model is historical data on pensions in force at 1 January 2025, with a projection horizon extending to 2070.

INTegraSS models the entire public pension system using a modular system, which allows the system’s heterogeneity to be reflected. At a basic level, the following are distinguished:

• Contributory Pensions
• Civil Servants
• Non- Contributory Pensions

In addition to the usual classifications by age, sex and type of pension, in the case of contributory pensions, the model incorporates additional variables that make it possible to characterise the dynamics of the system more accurately:

• Brackets of amounts (minimum, uncapped and maximum pensions)
• Scheme (employed and self-employed)
• Type of retirement (early, standard or deferred)
• Degree of disability
• Concurrence of pensions, in the case of widowhood

In the case of contributory pensions,  the various components of the pension are also taken into account, distinguishing between the basic pension and the applicable supplements.

A key tool for planning

Thanks to its comprehensive approach and the wealth of information it provides, INTegraSS represents a significant step forward in the analysis of pension expenditure, contributing to a better understanding of its future trends and to the design of public polices that are based on evidence.